Home I All Guides I Sports Betting Guides I Strategy I Value Bets in Sports Betting
When you start placing bets on sports, it is almost certain that you will come across the term “value bets”. Sooner or later you are going to read about it and how it helped punters to become successful. We want to show you what a value bet is. We will also help you to understand if a bet is a value bet.
Basically, you need to find a bet priced for less than it is actually worth. Value is a term used in investing, but it has become a common term in the world of sports betting. Professional punters often time make their living from finding value bets. If you see that the real probability for a certain outcome is higher than the odds a bookmaker is providing, then you have found yourself a value bet.
First of all we need to take a look at the odds to find a value bet. Odds offered by bookmakers should reflect the probability of a certain result.
Let’s say we have two basically equal teams competing in a basketball game. The percentages for a victory are split in half: 50% for one team to win and 50% for the other one.
The ideal odds for both teams would be 2.0 each. However, we have to keep in mind that bookmakers also need to take their fair share. It is almost certain, that bookmakers won’t give you these odds of 2.0 for both teams. That’s only the case if they are running a special promotion.
Sportsbooks are relying on this commission to generate profit- this is how the sports betting industry works. Therefore bookmakers are inclined to provide odds which don’t offer value bet situations. Most bookmakers charge a commission on their odds ranging from 2% up to 8%.
Let’s say a bookmaker is providing odds of 1.90 for each team in our example. If you decide to place a €10 bet on each team, you are obviously going to win one of them eventually. Your winnings will be €19 in total.
Even though you have won your bet, you have lost €1 overall by doing so. This €1 loss is the commission the bookmaker charged.
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Let’s have a look at another example:
Germany is playing in the Quarter-Finals of the EURO 2016 against Italy. The sportsbook of our choice this time is Coral Sports, providing the following odds:
Odds of 2.25 for a German victory imply that there is a 44% probability for this event to occur. If you think that the real probability for Germany to win the match outright is actually higher than that, you have found value bet spot. This is basically what you have to do to find a value bet. You need to compare the odds offered to your calculated probability and find spots where the odds are in your favor.
Often times you will have to compare the odds several bookmakers are offering, because there are differences in the evaluation of certain games. Almost every sportsbook calculates their own odds, allowing you to find some value bets.
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