We are quickly approaching the final days of the French Open 2018 and Rafael Nadal is once again the heavy favorite to win the title.
The 10-time champion is 23-1 on clay this year and has claimed titles at Monte Carlo, Barcelona, and Rome. In addition, Nadal has yet to drop a set at this year’s tournament.
The world’s No.1 will face a tricky test in the quarterfinals against Diego Schwartzman. The Argentinean pulled off an epic comeback from two sets down to defeat Kevin Anderson after three hours and 51 minutes. Moreover, Schwartzman won the biggest title of his career earlier this season at the Rio Open.
Nevertheless, the 25-year-old has never beaten Nadal, with the Spaniard winning all their previous five official encounters on the ATP World Tour. For that reason, we expect another comfortable win from Nadal in straight sets but 1.33 at Pinnacle is too short for us to find any value.
Regardless of this Wednesday’s outcome, one thing is certain; Nadal will face a former US Open champion in the semifinals if he manages to beat Schwartzman. Juan Martin del Potro of Argentina and Croatian Marin Čilić will face each other for the 13th time with del Potro leading the head-to-head at 10-2.
Adding to this, the slow conditions at Roland Garros should benefit the 29-year-old del Potro as the favorite to reach the semifinals. The market agrees with us with Juan Martin’s price steaming 9.43% since the opening odds. Despite the drop on the Argentinean’s moneyline, 1.59 is still a good price to take at Pinnacle on this quarterfinals clash between two of the tallest players on the ATP World Tour.
On the other side of the draw, Dominic Thiem is the clear favorite to reach the final after Novak Djokovic’s surprising defeat against Marco Cecchinato in the quarterfinals. Despite Marco’s brilliant run, Thiem should be too strong and win the match in straight sets with Dominic’s -2.5 Set Handicap at 1.83 at Pinnacle as the most valuable play for this contest.
As mentioned above, Nadal is the undeniable favorite to lift the trophy in Paris. Even though we agree with the Spaniard’s favoritism, it’s impossible to find any value on his current odds at 1.30 at William Hill. Looking now at the players that Nadal might face in the following rounds, Thiem is clearly the one with better chances of beating him.
The Austrian was the last player to defeat Nadal on clay after an impressive straight-sets win over the Spaniard in Madrid. For that reason, our suggestion is for you to keep an eye on the market and wait for a price above evens for Thiem to take a set in a potential clash against Nadal in the final.
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