Home I Football I FA Cup Final Match Preview & Betting Prediction
It’s that time of year again, folks. There aren’t as many matches as normal, but the ones that do find their way onto our TVs are usually massive. This Saturday it’s the FA Cup Final between Chelsea and Man United, live on BBC One (and BT Sport 2) at 17.15.
As is often the case with the biggest games, the bookies aren’t going to get the match prices wrong here. It’s almost a coinflip, with neither side available to back at bigger than evens to lift the trophy with the main firms. It’s almost 2/1 each of three for the 90 minute betting, with Man United generally tiny favourites- there’s 9/5 United with Bet365, while William Hill go 2/1 Chelsea.
Here’s the two teams’ routes to Wembley.
Round 3- Norwich City (A) 0-0
Round 3 (Replay)- Norwich City (H) 1-1 A.E.T. (5-3 pens)
Round 4- Newcastle United (H) 3-0
Round 5- Hull City (H) 4-0
Quarter Final- Leicester City (A) 2-1 A.E.T.
Semi Final- Southampton 2-0
Round 3- Derby County (H) 2-0
Round 4- Yeovil Town (A) 4-0
Round 5- Huddersfield Town (A) 2-0
Quarter Final- Brighton & Hove Albion (H) 2-0
Semi Final- Tottenham Hotspur 2-1
As you can see, United have had the easier run-in, conceding just a solitary Dele Ali goal en route to the final. Chelsea almost fell at the first hurdle, requiring penalties to get past lowly Norwich (after a replay) in the third round.
United were fantastic against the Spurs and have kept their season going. The same can’t be said for Chelsea. With Conte looking over his shoulder for some time, Chelsea threw in the towel in about three months ago.
They finished a disappointing fifth in defending their Premier League title, 11 points behind Man United. To that end, we’d certainly rather be backing red than blue this weekend. It’s also worth remembering that Mourinho has won 12 of his 14 major European and domestic finals.
The main talking point ahead of Saturday’s showpiece is the fitness of Romelu Lukaku. The big Belgian hasn’t quite set the world alight this season but on his day he’s one of the best strikers in the world.
He’s not played since he limped off against Arsenal last month. It seems Mourinho will throw him in regardless but if he’s off the pace, Chelsea will be breathing a sigh of relief.
Anthony Martial has just been passed fit. Emerson Palmieri is out for the Blues but they have no real injury concerns.
We’re expecting, as in most big games with Mourinho at the helm, for it to be a cagey affair. William Hill goes 7/1 no goalscorer which would compensate us handsomely for having to endure another bore-off in the final. 1XBet goes 7/2 draw/draw in the half-time/full-time market and that certainly seems a fair enough price. The same firm also has a special- Lukaku to score and United to win at 5/1, which is a shade of value.
Coral has some more value with their 9/2 “either team to win on penalties” market. When we look at their head-to-head record at Wembley, it makes for interesting reading. They’ve played seven times and three of them have gone to penalties. United have won two of those three.
You can back United to win on penalties at 10/1 (Betway) and we’ll be having a few quid on that for sure.
One market worth a look is the Man of the Match market, which is usually reserved for a goalscorer or attacking player. As we’re thinking goals are going to be very few and far between, there’s a tremendous bet knocking about here.
William Hill go 10/1 any goalkeeper is awarded Man of the Match. With two of the world’s best, David de Gea and Thibaut Courtois, we’re confident we’re going to get a run for our money here. David de Gea has been simply the best goalkeeper on the planet over the last year or so and it would be no surprise if he pulls another hall-of-fame performance out of the bag on Saturday.
In summary, it’s going to be a dour 0-0 affair, it will still be level after extra time and de Gea will win the Cup for Man United in the shoot-out. You’re welcome.
As ever, have a great weekend, enjoy the game, and we hope you end up a bit richer at the end of it. Cheerio.
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